Market Update — January 2026
January 2026
Market
Update.
Scottsdale & Paradise Valley Real Estate
The year opened with more inventory, fewer closings, and rising prices. The luxury market is not stalling, it is becoming more selective. Here is what the January data shows and what it means for your position heading into spring.
— Anne Sostman, January 2026
January 2026 ARMLS Data
Scottsdale & Paradise Valley
All Dwelling Types
Year-Over-Year Comparison
Published by Anne Sostman
Market Overview
What the January
Data Is Telling Us.
January came out of the holiday pause with inventory expanding and transaction volume pulling back. Scottsdale active listings rose 6.7% year over year to 1,359. The number of homes that closed dropped 16.2% compared to January 2025. On the surface that reads as a slowdown. The detail tells a more specific story.
Prices moved up. The average Scottsdale SFR sale price reached $1,842,868 — up 4.5% from January 2025. Under contract activity was essentially flat, with 547 homes in contract versus 542 a year ago. The market is not contracting. It is becoming more deliberate, and that favors sellers who are positioned correctly from the start.
By Market
Scottsdale vs.
Paradise Valley.
Two markets, one month the data reads differently depending on which side of the city line you are on.
| Scottsdale
More Inventory.
Steady Demand. Scottsdale entered 2026 with expanded supply and buyers who kept contracting at nearly the same pace as the year prior. The closing volume decline is real, but under contract figures suggest the pipeline is intact. Sellers entering now have more competition — which makes preparation and pricing strategy more consequential, not less.
Active listings: 1,359 (up 6.7% YOY)
Homes sold: 197 (down 16.2% YOY)
Avg SFR sale price: $1,842,868 (up 4.5% YOY)
New listings: 1,011 (up 1.1% YOY)
Under contract: 547 (up 0.9% YOY)
|
Paradise Valley
Fewer Closings.
Significantly Higher Prices. Paradise Valley SFR closings dropped from 30 to 20 year over year, but average sale price surged from $4,181,630 to $6,904,000 — a 65% increase. This figure is real and worth understanding in context. With only 20 closings, a handful of trophy transactions carry significant weight on the average. Under contract activity rose 28%, signaling that buyer engagement is strong heading into spring.
Active listings: 348 (up 12.6% YOY)
SFR homes sold: 20 (down 33% YOY)
Avg SFR sale price: $6,904,000 (up 65% YOY)
New SFR listings: 88 (up 11% YOY)
Under contract SFR: 46 (up 28% YOY)
|
What It Means
Your Takeaway
This Month.
January data rarely tells the full story but it does set the tone. Here is the direct read for sellers and buyers heading into the spring market.
| For Sellers
Precision Now
Pays in March. January is the setup month. The sellers who will have strong spring results are the ones using this window to prepare not waiting until listings spike in February and March to start thinking about strategy. More inventory means more competition. Buyers have options. Homes that are not positioned precisely on price and presentation will sit while well-prepared homes move.
Use January to prepare spring buyers arrive fast
Prices are rising but buyers are informed and will not overpay
Closing volume softness is a pricing story — not a demand story
Off-market options available through the Private Client Network
|
For Buyers
More Choices.
Still a Narrow Window. Inventory is up in both markets and new listings are entering at a consistent pace. January is genuinely one of the better months to buy competition is lower, sellers are motivated, and spring has not yet driven prices further. The under contract numbers confirm that other buyers have already figured this out. Waiting for a better entry point in March or April means competing against more buyers for the same homes.
1,359 active Scottsdale listings more to work with than last year
PV under contract up 28% — serious buyers are already moving
Prices are rising, waiting costs more than it saves
Off-market access through the Private Client Network for properties not yet listed
|
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
in February.
The indicators that will confirm whether January’s patterns hold or shift as the season builds.
Work With Anne
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