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Buy Now or Wait

The Arithmetic of Waiting for Lower Rates.

Waiting changes two things at once: the rate you borrow at, and the price you pay. This tool shows what each scenario produces so you can compare them side by side. Every assumption is yours to set, and the tool draws no conclusion.

$1,722,910Average sale price
2,485Homes sold
97%Of list price
83Days to close

ARMLS closed sales, January to June 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Average sale price moved up 4.2% year over year, which reflects the mix of homes that sold in this area rather than the change in value of a single home. Looking at another area? Request a custom analysis.

Appreciation while you wait

3.2% in 2026 then 1.9% in 2027, compounded

Rate in 2 years that matches today’s payment
6.0%
You have entered 6.2% as your assumed future rate. Fannie Mae's May 2026 forecast is 6.2% for 2027.
Buy now
Price
$1,722,910
Payment
$8,785
Equity in 2 years
$464,947

$344,582 down, $31,376 principal paid, $88,989 price change

Wait 2 years
Price
$1,811,899
Payment
$8,987
Equity in 2 years
$344,582

$344,582 down, no principal paid, purchase made at the later price

The difference
Price of the same house
+$88,989
Monthly payment
+$202
Equity after 2 years
+$120,365

Figures compare buying today against buying the same home after the wait, using the appreciation rate you selected. Equity counts your down payment, principal paid, and price change. Excluded on both sides: property taxes, insurance, maintenance, closing costs, and any tax treatment. Future rates and future prices cannot be known. These are the results of your assumptions, not a projection.

Appreciation presets: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler AZ (MSA), through 2026 Q1, updated automatically, and Fannie Mae ESR Group, May 2026 Housing Forecast. Rate default: Freddie Mac 30 year fixed average via FRED. Area figures: ARMLS closed sales, January to June 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Historical Appreciation

What Phoenix Has Actually Done.

Federal Housing Finance Agency repeat-sales index for the Phoenix metro, covering Maricopa and Pinal counties, through 2026 Q1.

Since 1977
5.27% a year

The full published series, spanning every boom and correction in the record.

Last 20 Years
3.09% a year

A complete cycle measured from the 2006 peak, including the crash and the recovery.

Last 10 Years
8.47% a year

The post-crash recovery and the pandemic period.

Year Over Year
2.39%

The most recent published reading, through 2026 Q1.

2006 to 2011
Down 51.1%

Peak in 2006 Q4 to trough in 2011 Q2. The index regained the prior peak in 2019 Q2.

Fannie Mae Forecast
3.2%, then 1.9%

National home price growth for 2026 and 2027, from the May 2026 forecast.

FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler AZ (MSA), updated automatically as new quarters are published.

Buy Now OR Wait

How the Math Works

Waiting Changes Two Numbers at Once.

A buyer who waits for a lower mortgage rate is changing two variables, not one. The rate determines what the loan costs each month. The price determines how large the loan is. If the price moves while you wait, it works in the opposite direction from the rate.

The breakeven rate is where those two forces cancel out. It is the rate you would need at the time of a later purchase to produce the same monthly payment available today, after accounting for whatever the price did in between. Above that rate the later payment is higher. Below it, the later payment is lower.

The calculator reports both scenarios and the difference between them. It does not weigh your circumstances, your timeline, or your tolerance for either outcome, and it does not recommend a course of action.

Rate Sets the Payment.
On a $1.38 million loan, a one point change in rate moves the monthly principal and interest by roughly $900.
Price Sets the Loan.
A price that rises while you wait increases the amount borrowed on the same property, at whatever rate applies then.
Equity Accrues to the Owner.
Principal paydown and any change in value accrue to whoever holds title during that period.
Rates Can Be Refinanced.
A rate can be renegotiated later, subject to qualifying and closing costs. A purchase price is fixed at closing.

Current Expectations

What the Published Forecasts Say.

Fannie Mae's May 2026 housing forecast holds the thirty year fixed rate at 6.3% through the first quarter of 2027 and 6.2% for the remainder of that year. In that forecast the rate does not reach 6.1% in either year. The April 2026 forecast had projected more relief, and was revised.

The same forecast projects national home price growth of 3.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, measured fourth quarter over fourth quarter.

Forecasts are revised as conditions change, and no forecast establishes what rates or prices will actually be. The rate and appreciation fields in the calculator are editable so you can test the assumptions you find credible rather than the ones published here.

Metro Figures Are Averages.
The FHFA index measures the Phoenix metro as a whole. Individual corridors move on their own supply and demand.
Two Different Measures.
The FHFA index tracks repeat sales of the same homes. The area figures in the calculator track average sale price, which also moves with the mix of homes that sold.

What the Tool Excludes

Where the Numbers Stop.

The comparison covers price, monthly principal and interest, principal paydown, and the change in value at the appreciation rate you select. It excludes property taxes, homeowners insurance, maintenance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, closing costs on either transaction, and any tax treatment of mortgage interest or capital gains. It assumes the same property is purchased in both scenarios and that the down payment is the same dollar amount either way.

Those exclusions apply to both sides of the comparison, so the difference between the two columns remains meaningful even though neither column is a complete cost of ownership. For a figure specific to a particular property, the inputs can be replaced with real numbers for that home.

Run a Specific Property.
Send an address and the same comparison can be run against actual comparable sales in that corridor rather than an area average.

Run It on Your Home

Considering a Different Area?
Anywhere in the Valley, and any specific address

The areas in the calculator cover Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Arcadia. If you are looking at Cave Creek, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Phoenix, or anywhere else in the Valley, send the area or the address. I will run this same comparison using closed sales for that specific market rather than an area average, along with the comparable set it is built from.

Anne Sostman · The Brokery · 480.999.9945