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July 2026 MARKET UPDATE

Market Update, July 2026
By Anne Sostman | The Brokery | License SA718853000

July 2026
Market
Update.

Scottsdale, Arcadia & Paradise Valley Real Estate

July closings held close to last year. The pipeline behind them did not. Homes going under contract fell by roughly half in all three markets, the deepest summer pullback in recent years. Prices held their ground. This is the seasonal slowdown arriving on schedule, and arriving hard. Here is what the July data shows.

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“A slower market and a falling market are not the same thing. July was the first, not the second.”
Anne Sostman
434
Scottsdale Closings, Down 1.4% YOY
209
Scottsdale Under Contract, Down 51.6% YOY
$4.22M
Paradise Valley Median Sale Price, Up 11.2% YOY
48
Arcadia Closings, Up 60% YOY

July 2026 ARMLS Data

Scottsdale, Arcadia & Paradise Valley

All Dwelling Types

Closed, Pending, Active and New

Zip Level, Not Metro Averages

Market Overview

Both Sides Stepped
Back at Once.

July closings came in near last year. Scottsdale residential closed 434 sales, down 1.4% year over year, at a median of $899,500 and an average of $1,292,873. That is roughly $561M in closed volume, up about 10%.* Paradise Valley closed 30, down 18.9%, at a median of $4,224,500, up 11.2%. Arcadia closed 48, up 60%.

The number that matters is behind those closings. Homes going under contract fell to 209 in Scottsdale, down 51.6% from a year ago. Paradise Valley fell 45.5%. Arcadia fell 53.6%. Contracts written in July become closings in September, so this is the clearest read available on what autumn looks like.

What separates July from a genuinely weak market is that sellers stepped back too. New listings in Scottsdale fell 10.1% and active inventory fell 8.9%. When demand and supply withdraw together, prices hold, and they did. This is a quieter market, not a cheaper one.

-51.6%
Scottsdale homes under contract, year over year
+5.8%
Scottsdale median sale price, year over year
4.06
Months of supply in Scottsdale, down from 4.77

Two Markets, Two Directions

Scottsdale vs. Paradise Valley.

Scottsdale
Supply Tightened
With Demand.
Scottsdale closed 434 residential sales in July, down 1.4% year over year, at a median of $899,500, up 5.8%. Under contract activity fell to 209, down 51.6%. The offsetting move is on the supply side: new listings fell 10.1% to 501 and active inventory fell 8.9% to 2,249. Months of supply actually tightened, to 4.06 from 4.77. Year to date, Scottsdale is still ahead: 4,157 closings, up 6.0%, at a median of $965,000, up 7.2%.
 Paradise Valley
Fewer Sales,
More Supply.
Paradise Valley closed 30 sales, down 18.9%, at a median of $4,224,500, up 11.2%. The average of $6,515,584 was up 77%, but with 30 transactions in a month that figure moves on a handful of estate sales and should not be read as a market-wide gain. Supply moved the other way from Scottsdale: new listings rose 24.1% and active inventory rose 12.3%, while contracts fell 45.5%. Days on market stretched to a median of 105, from 79.

Arcadia, 85018

Why the Median Fell
and Values Did Not.

Arcadia will look alarming if you read one number. The July median sale price was $905,000, down 36.3% from $1,420,000 a year ago. Nothing in the underlying data supports a 36% decline in what Arcadia homes are worth.

Here is what actually happened. Arcadia closed 48 sales in July, up 60% from 30 a year ago, and the growth came almost entirely from the lower end of the zip code. In July 2025, 3 sales closed under $550,000. In July 2026, 15 did. At the top, nothing changed: 4 sales closed above $3M in both years. More entry-level closings pull the midpoint down without moving the value of a single home.

The year to date figures show the trend without the monthly noise. Arcadia has closed 406 sales in 2026, up 20.8%, at a median of $1,218,750, up 18.9% from $1,025,000. That is the number to hold on to. As everywhere else, the pipeline thinned: 13 homes went under contract in July, down 53.6%.

+18.9%
Arcadia median sale price, year to date
15 of 48
July closings under $550,000, versus 3 of 30 last July
4 and 4
Sales above $3M in July 2026 and July 2025

What This Means

For Sellers and Buyers.

If You Are Selling
Price to the market in front of you, not the one from March. Half as many buyers are writing contracts as last July, and the ones who are have more to choose from at the top of the market. Homes priced correctly are still selling: Scottsdale months of supply tightened this month. Homes priced to spring are the ones sitting, and Paradise Valley days on market stretching from 79 to 105 is what that looks like in the data. If you plan to list in the autumn, the preparation window is now, while vendors and trades have capacity.
 If You Are Buying
This is the least competition you will face all year. Paradise Valley added inventory while contracts fell by nearly half, which is the clearest negotiating position in the three markets. Scottsdale is more nuanced: inventory tightened alongside demand, so leverage there is property by property rather than market wide. The homes worth pursuing are the ones that have been listed since spring and have already had a price correction. Ask what the seller has turned down.

The Month Ahead

What to Watch
in August.

August closings will reflect June and July contracts, so expect the closed numbers to come down. That is arithmetic, not deterioration, and it is worth knowing before the headlines arrive.

The number to actually watch is under contract activity. If it stabilises in August, the July drop was seasonal and the autumn market arrives on schedule. If it falls again from an already low base, the slowdown is more than seasonal and pricing strategy has to change with it.

The second signal is Paradise Valley supply. New listings up 24.1% and inventory up 12.3% against contracts down 45.5% is the one genuine imbalance in this report. If sellers keep listing into a thin buyer pool through August, negotiating leverage at the top of the market moves further toward buyers.

+24.1%
Paradise Valley new listings, year over year
-45.5%
Paradise Valley homes under contract, year over year
105
Median days on market in Paradise Valley, up from 79

Common Questions

Questions Sellers Ask Most.

What is the Scottsdale real estate market doing in July 2026?
Per ARMLS July 2026 data, Scottsdale residential closed 434 sales, down 1.4 percent year over year, at a median sale price of $899,500, up 5.8 percent, and an average of $1,292,873. The forward-looking signal is much softer: homes under contract fell to 209, down 51.6 percent from a year earlier. Supply pulled back at the same time, with new listings down 10.1 percent and active inventory down 8.9 percent, so months of supply tightened to 4.06 from 4.77. Year to date, Scottsdale has closed 4,157 sales, up 6.0 percent.
Why did the Arcadia median sale price drop 36 percent in July 2026?
The 85018 median fell to $905,000 from $1,420,000 because of what sold, not because values declined. Arcadia closed 48 sales in July 2026 versus 30 a year earlier, and the increase came from the lower end: 15 closings under $550,000 this July compared with 3 last July. Sales above $3M were unchanged at 4 in both years. Year to date, the Arcadia median is $1,218,750, up 18.9 percent from $1,025,000, which is the more reliable measure of direction.
What is the median home price in Paradise Valley in July 2026?
Per ARMLS, the median sale price in Paradise Valley was $4,224,500 in July 2026, up 11.2 percent from $3,800,000 a year earlier. The average sale price of $6,515,584 was up 77 percent, but Paradise Valley closed only 30 sales in the month, so the average moves sharply on a small number of estate transactions and the median is the better read. Year to date the median is $4,012,500, up 9.9 percent.
Is the Scottsdale market slowing down or falling?
Slowing, on the July data. Homes going under contract fell by roughly half across all three markets, which is a genuine drop in activity. Prices did not follow: the Scottsdale median rose 5.8 percent and the Paradise Valley median rose 11.2 percent. Sellers withdrew alongside buyers, with Scottsdale new listings down 10.1 percent and inventory down 8.9 percent, which is why months of supply tightened rather than loosened. A falling market shows rising inventory and falling prices together. July showed neither.
Is now a good time to sell in Scottsdale or Paradise Valley?
It depends on your property and your timing, and July gives a clear steer on both. There are roughly half as many active buyers as last July, so pricing to current conditions rather than to spring comparables is what determines whether a home sells. Correctly priced homes are still transacting, and inventory is tighter in Scottsdale than a year ago. If your plan is an autumn listing, the preparation window is open now. The most useful next step is a valuation on your specific home rather than a decision based on a market-wide median.

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A market median tells you what happened across thousands of homes. It does not tell you what yours is worth, or what the next ninety days look like for your street. Send me the address and I will give you a straight read, at no cost and with no obligation to list with me.

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*Closed volume is derived from ARMLS average sale price multiplied by closed count and is approximate. Paradise Valley’s average sale price is sensitive to composition given its low monthly transaction count. All figures are ARMLS residential data for July 2026, all dwelling types, compared with July 2025. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

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