Market Update — June 2026
By Anne Sostman | The Scottsdale Agent | License SA718853000
June 2026
Market
Update.
Scottsdale, Arcadia & Paradise Valley Real Estate
June closings finished the spring on a strong note. Scottsdale residential sales rose 15% year over year and Arcadia climbed 39%. Yet under contract activity fell sharply in all three markets. The closing data describes the spring that already happened; the pipeline describes the summer that is coming, and it is contracting. Here is what the June data shows.
— Anne Sostman, June 2026
June 2026 ARMLS Data
Scottsdale, Arcadia & Paradise Valley
All Dwelling Types
Year-Over-Year Comparison
Published by Anne Sostman
Market Overview
The Headlines Lag
the Pipeline.
June produced the strongest-looking closing data of the season. Scottsdale residential closed 591 sales, up 15% year over year, at an average price of $1,390,837 and a median of $1,000,000, up 8.7%. That is roughly $822M in closed volume, up about 21%.* The problem is that closings are a lagging measure. The homes that closed in June went under contract in April and May, when the pipeline was still full. The forward-looking number tells a different story: Scottsdale homes under contract fell to 271, down 40.6% from a year ago.
The same divergence appears in every market. Arcadia closings rose 39% and its median gained 21%, but under contract activity fell 21%. Paradise Valley closings were essentially flat at 30, its median held at $3,446,000, yet under contract collapsed 57% to 16. Prices are firm and closings are strong, but the pipeline that feeds July and August has thinned across Scottsdale, Arcadia, and Paradise Valley at the same time. That is the number that matters now.
By Market
Scottsdale vs.
Paradise Valley.
Both markets closed June in strong shape and both saw their pipelines thin at the same time. The headline figures and the forward-looking figures point in opposite directions. Here is the full picture for each.
| Scottsdale
Closings Up.
Pipeline Down. Scottsdale posted another strong closing month — 591 residential sales, up 15% year over year, at a median of $1,000,000. Volume reached roughly $822M.* The data inside the data is where the shift lives: homes under contract dropped to 271, down 40.6% year over year, and absorption eased to 4.77 months from 5.41. Average days on market extended to 94 from 85. The luxury market is decelerating from peak season velocity, but it is doing so from a position of strength rather than weakness.
Closings: 591 (up 15% YOY)
Median sale price: $1,000,000 (up 8.7% YOY) | Average: $1,390,837 (up 5.3%)
Closed volume: ~$822M (up ~21% YOY)*
Absorption: 4.77 months (down 12% YOY) | Avg CDOM: 94 days (up 11%)
Under contract: 271 (down 40.6% YOY)
|
Paradise Valley
Median Flat.
Pipeline Halved. Paradise Valley closed 30 residential sales, down 6% year over year, holding its median at $3,446,000 — essentially unchanged from a year ago. The average of $4,147,351, up 6%, should be read with caution: Paradise Valley’s low monthly volume makes the average highly sensitive to which handful of estates happen to close, so the median is the reliable measure here. Two figures stand out. Average days on market extended to 126 from 95, up 33%, and under contract fell to 16 from 37, a 57% decline. On a small base these numbers swing, but a drop of that size is a directional signal worth respecting.
Closings: 30 (down 6% YOY)
Median sale price: $3,446,000 (flat YOY) | Average: $4,147,351 (up 6%, composition-affected*)
Absorption: 7.07 months (down 3% YOY)
Avg CDOM: 126 days (up 33% YOY) | Median CDOM: 96 (up 30%)
Under contract: 16 (down 56.8% YOY)
|
Market Spotlight
Arcadia
(85018).
Arcadia produced the loudest headline of the month — average sale price up 36% — and it is the one that most needs unpacking. The volume is real; the interpretation requires care.
| The Numbers
Volume Surged.
Read the Median. The 85018 zip code closed 61 residential sales in June, up 39% year over year, with year to date closings up 17%. Both the average and the median moved higher, but by different amounts and for different reasons. The median, up 21% to $1,550,000, is the cleaner read on value and it is genuinely strong. The average, up 36% to $2,040,025, is the figure to handle carefully.
Closings: 61 (up 39% YOY) | YTD: 359 (up 17%)
Median sale price: $1,550,000 (up 21% YOY)
Average sale price: $2,040,025 (up 36% YOY — composition*)
Absorption: 5.80 months (steady YOY)
|
The Read
Mix, Not
Momentum. The 36% jump in average price is real dollars, but it is not a clean appreciation signal. Thirteen homes above $3M closed in June versus six a year ago, and eleven in the $2M to $3M band versus four. The high end simply transacted more, which pulls the average up regardless of what any individual home did. The median filters most of that noise, and at $1.55M it confirms real strength. Arcadia also shares the region’s forward-looking softness: under contract fell to 30 from 38, down 21%, and median days on market lengthened to 85 from 71. List prices are easing as well.
Under contract: 30 (down 21% YOY)
Median CDOM: 85 days (up 20% YOY)
Median list price: $1,149,000 (down 20% YOY)
Sales above $3M: 13 (versus 6 a year ago)
|
What This Means
For Sellers and
Buyers.
June reads very differently depending on which side of the transaction you are on. The closing data still favors sellers; the pipeline data is beginning to favor buyers. Here is the direct read for each.
| For Sellers
Closings Flatter
Than the Pipeline. The June closing numbers still describe a seller’s market, but they describe contracts written in April and May. The pool of buyers writing contracts today is materially smaller: down 40.6% in Scottsdale, 56.8% in Paradise Valley, and 21% in Arcadia. That gap between strong closings and a thinning pipeline is the single most important thing for a seller to understand this summer. Price to the demand in front of you now, not to the comparable sales from the spring peak. Homes are taking longer to sell — 94 days on average in Scottsdale and 126 in Paradise Valley — and the listings that sit longest are the ones priced to last quarter.
Closings and prices are still strong — the spring demand was real
Under contract down across all three markets — closings will moderate into fall
Pricing precision matters more each week — the buyer pool is selecting harder
See the cost of waiting to sell analysis before you set price
|
For Buyers
Leverage Is
Building. For buyers, the summer is setting up in your favor — not on every property, but on the right ones. A thinning contract pipeline means less competition for the listings that remain. Days on market are lengthening in all three markets, so the homes that did not sell during the spring peak are aging and their sellers are recalibrating. Pricing on closed sales is still up year over year, so this is not a falling market. It is a more negotiable one for buyers who are prepared, decisive, and working with someone who can identify which sellers are now genuinely motivated.
Fewer competing buyers as the contract pipeline thins into summer
Days on market lengthening — aged listings are increasingly negotiable
Prices still up YOY — this is a softening pace, not a falling market
Off-market access through the Private Client Network for properties not yet listed
|
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
in July.
Four indicators that will define whether the second half of 2026 holds its footing or transitions into a slower summer.
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